The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
It was two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener came from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.